Past Performance Is Not Future Brilliance

Why Safe Hires Make Safe Bets — and How 10% Risk Could Change Your Company Forever

We say we want innovation. But we hire like we’re afraid of it.

I’ve never had the final say on a hire.

But I’ve seen them come and go. I’ve read the resumes. I’ve sat in the meetings. I’ve watched the interviews. I’ve felt the dread when someone was hired — and I knew, deep down, this won’t end well.

I’ve also seen candidates get passed over who had that spark. That weird, raw energy. The ones who couldn’t explain themselves perfectly in the interview, but who clearly thought differently. And I thought: we should take a chance on them.

We didn’t.

The Resume Is Not a Crystal Ball

In theory, hiring is about potential. In practice, it’s about safety.

We look at resumes like oracles. Did they go to the “right” school? Work for the “right” companies? Can they talk just well enough about Docker and microservices to check the box?

If so — great. Welcome aboard.

But that’s not where future brilliance lives. Some of the best people I’ve worked with had messy paths, strange stories, or zero formal credentials. They made their way in through side doors. Or backdoors. Or sheer force of will.

And they built things that actually mattered.

The Polished Pick Isn’t Always the Right One

Let’s be honest: hiring is scared of risk.

Even the managers who want to take chances often can’t. If a polished candidate underperforms, well — no one blames you. You followed the system. But if you bet on a wild card and they flop?

That’s on you.

So we keep picking safe bets.

And we keep missing the ones who would’ve built something incredible.

The 10% Rule: Hire Like You Mean It

Here’s the idea I wish someone would implement:

Set aside 10–20% of your hiring for “potential bets.”

Make it official. Make it part of the process. Let hiring teams say:

This person doesn’t have the conventional track, but we believe in them. Let’s give them a shot.

That opens the door for:

• Career changers who’ve taught themselves to code at night
• Brilliant misfits who bomb interviews but build great things
• People who didn’t have the luck or privilege to follow the standard path

And let’s be brutally honest:

Some of the best developers don’t look great on paper — and don’t even interview well.

But you give them a real-world task? A problem worth solving?

They light up. They go deep. They surprise you.

Who’s Worth Betting On?

From the sidelines, I started noticing the patterns — the signs that someone had it, even if their resume didn’t show it yet.

These are some of them:

• They’ve taught themselves something hard — and stuck with it
• They ask weird, specific questions during technical discussions
• They’ve built something just because they had to scratch an itch
• They’re willing to admit what they don’t know — and excited to learn it
• They might be socially awkward, but they’re relentless in the code

And sometimes, the potential doesn’t show in the work — yet.

Not because it’s not there. But because they haven’t had the opportunity.

The time.

The resources.

The permission.

But you can still sense it.

In their curiosity.

In how they think.

In how they frame a problem even if they’ve never solved it.

That’s the kind of signal most hiring processes aren’t tuned to detect.

But it’s exactly the signal that predicts future brilliance.

And sometimes - rarely - there is no sign at all (we should be aware of this).

Final Thought: You Don’t Need to Bet Everything — Just Something

I’m not saying throw out your hiring process. I get it — companies need evidence, predictability, risk mitigation.

But set aside a percentage. Build it into the culture.

Because the future stars? The ones who’ll refactor your core system, invent your next internal tool, or just quietly write the code nobody else could figure out?

They don’t always look the part.

They just need one chance.

You’re Not Hiring Yet? Doesn’t Matter.

Even if you’re not the one making the decision, your opinion matters. Say something. Advocate for the person who might not check all the boxes but lights up your instincts.

Or give someone the break they’ve been waiting for.